At the start of 2026, global commodity markets opened steadily, presenting an overall pattern of strength in energy, divergence in metals, volatility in agricultural products, and safe-haven demand for precious metals. OPEC+ maintained stable production cuts, which, combined with escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, strengthened cost support for the energy and chemical chain. Industrial metals were driven by the recovery in new energy and manufacturing, with lithium, nickel, and tin leading the gains; copper and aluminum saw balanced supply and demand, resulting in moderate price movements. Precious metals received support from central bank gold purchases and safe-haven demand, with gold maintaining high-level fluctuations.

The agricultural product market generally maintained a weak and volatile pattern. Stable weather conditions in major producing countries and relatively ample global inventories meant limited support from supply and demand fundamentals; only edible oils and corn experienced range-bound fluctuations due to disruptions in international trade flows, export pace, and logistics chains. China's Commodity Price Index rose month-on-month, and market confidence gradually recovered. Institutions generally believe that the market at the beginning of the year is primarily priced based on fundamentals, with liquidity expectations and geopolitical risks being the main variables. A continuation of divergent trends is highly likely throughout the year, with energy and strategic metals holding relative advantages. Close attention needs to be paid to oil-producing countries' policies, the recovery of global demand, and the evolution of geopolitical situations.