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2026: Global Financial Financing Markets Face Systemic Impact

In 2026, the full-scale escalation of the US-Iran military conflict triggered severe turbulence in global financial financing markets, leading to a rapid tightening of risk pricing and the financing environment. Geopolitical uncertainty heightened risk-aversion sentiment, leading to widespread adjustments in global stock markets, with high-valuation growth sectors under significant pressure. Bond markets showed increased divergence; rising inflation expectations drove US Treasury yields upward, credit spreads widened, and financing costs increased for lower-rated entities. Banks became more prudent in lending, raising thresholds for corporate loans and slowing down loan disbursements, while cross-border financing and dollar bond issuance cooled significantly. Emerging market currencies depreciated, capital outflow pressures increased, and the risks of external debt repayment and refinancing rose. Market institutions pointed out that the conflict impacts the financing system through three main channels: energy prices, liquidity expectations, and risk appetite. The future outlook depends on the conflict's duration, central bank policy responses, and the progress of supply chain repair, marking a new phase of high volatility and high costs for the global financing environment.